An election analysis appeared this week with ten reasons Vermont’s Lt.Gov.Dubie might win election to governor .Most of the ten are not based on Dubie’s strengths but on waiting for weakness in the Democratic candidates. Others rely on lame duck Gov. Jim Douglas pulling well hidden magic out of his bag of tricks .If Douglas had any magic left I maintain he would be using it for his own re-election . Dubie a weak but supposedly likable candidate laying low attempting to run below the fray perhaps even tapping his Adjutant General brother’s connections for help is hardly an image of strength that voters are looking for .Waiting for Democratic disarray although perhaps the best bet is a very passive strategy.
1. Democratic disarray: With five Democrats lined up and ready to battle for the gubernatorial battle – and I mean battle – attention will be focused on the Democrats for much of the next year and their arguments with each other. Dubie will be able to remain above the fray. The Democratic primary means there will be no head-to-head debates featuring Dubie until after the primary. In 2002 the gubernatorial candidates debated 36 times, with many coming during the summer. That won’t happen this time.
Democrats in disarray this is #1 ? Dubie above the fray strategy,a Vermont Rose Garden candidate? Out of the fray and avoiding getting into it appears weak. As a candidate for LT.Gov ducked debates and made repeated claims of schedule conflicts to avoid appearances. The fray is unavoidable this time.
There is an array of Democratic candidates .Early on all five are running a respectful primary. This past legislative session and two veto overrides presents a competent image for Democrats statewide. Waiting for disarray in your opponents isn’t the hallmark of a strong candidate.
2. Dubie’s personality: Brian Dubie is hard to pigeonhole. He takes some pragmatic stands – cows to Cuba – that show he is not your traditional conservative. He also comes across as a nice guy. And in the end personality matters more than party affiliation in choosing a governor. Vermonters want to feel comfortable with their governor, more so than in whom they might elect to the US House or the US Senate.
Dubie’s pragmatic personality: His conservative social views are out of step with many Vermonters. His 2006 visit with Bill O’Reilly is an example.
Was Vermont ever strongly anti-Castro? The cows to Cuba gambit; his Nixon to China moment, quirky but it won’t win him the election. The nice guy role may not play that well given the tough range of problems ahead for the state. Nice guy image, even quirky perhaps but is he up to the challenge?
3. Sense of balance: With the Democrats holding such a dominant position in the Legislature – strong majorities in both chambers, most all of the committee chairmanships and all of the top leadership positions – Vermonters may want to inject some balance into the political equation by having a Republican chief executive. Governor Jim Douglas has worked hard to promote his belief that only he stands between the Democrats and financial ruin for the state. That argument may work as well for Dubie.
Dubie as balance to Dems: Does he have enough gravitas to be seen as a balance. No doubt he will try this line of argument which supposedly worked for Douglas. But he is not Douglas and voters know that. Douglas could lay claim to having been the responsible sec. of state for many years .Dubie has little to no government management background to support this claim.
4. The state of the economy: In tough times some surveys have shown that voters feel more comfortable with a fiscal conservative in the governor’s office. In the 2008 election Douglas won 51 percent of the vote of those who said they were worried about economic conditions.
This is basically # 3 again What worked for the Douglas will not work for the Dubie .Co-pilots do not generate the same comfort level as pilot. In tough times surveys show voters want experienced leaders.
5. The election calendar: The 2010 primary is the latest possible date – September 14 – while the general election is the earliest possible date – November 2 – which means the Democrats will have the shortest possible time to rally around their nominee and focus their fight and their money on Dubie.
This may be reasonable .But it again takes primary disarray as a given.Just hoping for an opponent’s disarray is not a winning strategy.
6. The Douglas factor: If Jim Douglas had run in 2010 the odds were that he would have won. It would have been messy and expensive – and close, but he probably would have won. Dubie doesn’t have Douglas’ stature, and has miles to go before he has Douglas’ command of the issues and knowledge of the state, but he will be helped if Douglas is out there campaigning for him.
In 2010 Douglas might have just squeaked in had he chosen to run. The stature of the man that could barely win cannot be magically transferred to Dubie.
7. Energy issues: I think a case can be made that the state is not as liberal as the Democrats in the Senate and not as conservative as Douglas. Vermont has a very strong and vocal progressive streak, but there is a wide band of moderate Vermonters who make the difference in key elections. In the 2008 election 44 percent of voters self-identified as moderates and when asked party identification, 40 percent said they were independents. Nationally, by comparison, only 29 percent say they are independent. Several of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates have been outspoken on issues like the shutdown of Vermont Yankee and time will tell if those positions are shared by independent and moderate Vermonters.
Shutting down of Vermont Yankee is not the radical step it may have once been .It isn’t just for dirty hippies anymore .Entergy’s record of the past year has soured many former supporters .Gov. Douglas even compared the management of the plant to The Simpson’s cartoon. The decommissioning fund and cleanup costs that may fall on the state are clear to many .Dubie’s support of wind power is hardly an energy platform.
8. The Dubie network: Each of the Democratic candidates has a map to victory, building on networks that have been years in the making. Deb Markowitz, for example, is counting on backing from the local officials she has worked with as secretary of state. Dubie has developed his own network as lieutenant governor, but he also has the potential of benefiting from the connections of his brother Mike, the state’s adjutant general.
Injecting the Adjutant General’s connections and by extension the National Guard into a gubernatorial race might strike many as a bad move .Remember the Adjutant General is elected by the legislature ,currently controlled by Democrats .
9. The political line-up: Neither US Senator Patrick Leahy nor US Representative Peter Welch appears likely to face any opposition of significance, which means that neither will be doing the level of fundraising or building the get-out-the-vote operation they would if they did. That means Democratic turnout will not be at the fever pitch it would if Leahy and Welch faced contested races.
Low turnout is a potential danger for both sides. Dubie hardly sets the Republicans on fire. The winner of a well fought primary may hit the general election with a fired up base
10. The Progressive factor: And then there is the question of a whether a Progressive candidate will get into the race. If one does, the odds of a Dubie victory go up significantly. A Democratic-Progressive split is what allowed him to win office in 2002 with just 41 percent of the vote. Peter Shumlin received 32 percent and Anthony Pollina received 24 percent.
Always a danger, but several high profiles P’s have made noises about entering Democratic primaries and running as P/D’s. The signs are good the D/P split may not materialize this election .It is actually Dubie’s best bet.
